The Tucson Unified School District has nearly 3% fewer students — mostly in grades K-5 — than this time last year, according to the district’s Day 10 count.
That data, along with a breakdown by student cohort, countywide birthrates and other district comparisons will be presented by TUSD Superintendent Gabriel Trujillo at Tuesday night’s Governing Board meeting.
Trujillo will make the case to close or consolidate schools during his superintendent’s report, according to the meeting agenda. Trujillo will show nine slides overlaying Day 10 enrollment and Pima County birthrate data — adding to the conversation about closing or consolidating up to 10 schools over the next two years in Southern Arizona’s largest school district.
Day 10 data (which came on Aug. 19 this school year) is used at the local level to drop “no-show” students and to finalize school rosters. It is not a formal state benchmark. Day 40 and Day 100 counts are used to fund schools for the coming year.
The falling numbers mean a drop in funding which can force districts to close schools. Last year, TUSD lost nearly $8 million in state funds because of lower enrollment.
Community meetings
• Monday Sept. 21, Sahuaro High School, 6-8:30 p.m.|
• Wednesday, Sept. 23, Cholla High School, 4-6:30 p.m.
• Saturday, Sept. 26, Catalina High School, 9-11:30 a.m.
Find realignment timeline, data.
Meetings will be held in each school cafeteria. RSVP here.
Before it votes in December on which schools to close and consolidate, the district will have three community meetings this month where it aims to explain the data and show why the realignment is necessary: Declining enrollment due to lower Pima County birth rates and the use of Empowerment Scholarship Accounts and vouchers to homeschool or attend private schools, which has cost the district revenue.
Trujillo, a Denver-based consulting firm and two groups — an advisory committee and an internal district task force — are creating the realignment plan.
As a committee member, Jim Byrne — president of the Tucson Education Association, the labor union that represents teachers and most other classified employees in TUSD — hopes the organized data presentation invigorates taxpayers and families to participate in the realignment process and attend the meetings.
“Come learn how heavy the impact of the reactionary agenda on your child’s school, your neighborhood school, and also to brainstorm ideas to use the assets (both human and material) to make TUSD a better experience than it already is,” Byrne told Arizona Luminaria.
Keeping half-full schools open, air conditioned and staffed is too costly, district administrators say. TUSD, with about 35,000 students, says some schools could be consolidated — meaning a K-5 school could become K-8 and it will explore what to do with vacant school buildings and campuses.
Three takeaways from previewing Trujillo’s presentation coming Tuesday night:
- Declining cohorts: This year’s kindergarten cohort is down 13% over last school year — the largest percent change of any cohort pre-K through grade 12. Based on Day 10 numbers, the district has almost 200 fewer kindergartners than last year at this time. First and second grade are also in bigger decline at just over 9% each.
- Fewer births: The Pima County birthrate has declined every year since 2018. A mini-bust-boom over the COVID-19 pandemic is also reflected in district numbers: This year’s kindergarten decline mirrors the bust and a projected rebound should happen next school year, according to the projections.
- Nearly all districts down: Public school district enrollments are down about 3.5% throughout the county, according to the data. TUSD is at 3%. Two Tucson-area districts with the smallest change are Sahuarita (0.3%) and Catalina Foothills (0.1%). Only Continental Elementary School District in Green Valley showed growth at 2.1%.
School enrollment projections by the Arizona Department of Education are based on average daily membership. That number refers to the average number of students enrolled and attending a school each day during the first 100 days of the school year. It is based on daily enrollment and on the instructional minutes required by law for each grade level, Tucson Unified School District Chief Financial Officer Ricky Hernández said.
The membership includes students who are part-time, online, or who transfer mid-year, which can generate partial numbers, according to the state.
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